Lyra Symposium 2009 - The Death of Edgeline

Two years ago Edgeline was all you heard about.

HP had set their eyes on the copier world again and this time it was different.

This time HP has it's own machine, not some "duct taped" apparition.

This time HP was in charge of the channel, not partnering with a non-committal, old school dealer channel.

With Edgeline and an existing VAR channel, The Death of The Copier was just around the corner.

The machine utilized ink, did not use heat, corona wires, or static.

Demos were conducted, partners and service technicians trained.

Awards like the "Must See ‘em award" at the Graph Expo trade show, the “Technology Award” from the Microsoft Vendor Program (MSVP) and kudos from no less than BLI came rolling in.

Elite dealers made unit commitments - the world was their oyster.

The world waited -

And waited.

Fast forward to January, 2009. More specifically to the last session of the three day Lyra 2009 Symposium.

On stage sits the panel of esteemed financial pundits who specialize in analyzing the print industry. Keith Bachman, Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst Enterprise Hardware and Imaging BMO Capital Markets, Rob Sethre, CEO Woodford Group, Charles LeCompte, President Lyra Research, and Shannon Cross, Managing Director IT Hardware and Imaging Technology Cross Research.

Someone from the audience asks about HP Edgeline.

The panel does not hold back.

Phrases like,

"...the Edgeline has had no success at all..."

and proven to be an "objective failure" or HP is at best "...persistent at their failure..." seem to echo off the dark blue velvet back drop.

Of course, it didn't help that HP just announced the "relocation" of Edgeline R/D from Vancouver to Singapore. No, that did not help at all.

Edgeline falls within in IPG so the discussion blossoms once again with phrases like,

"...IPG is getting decimated..."

because "...Hurd is now focusing on IPG...trimming the fat..." so IPG can be "...more nimble..." especially when "...there is no more growth coming from the cash-cow..."

As bad as all this is, and deservedly so, there is a silver lining of sorts. It is expressed that no other firm in the world would be able to absorb such a disappointment. Additionally, it was commonly believed that HP will "do something" to get into and ultimately dominate the copier market.

As for suggestions on how HP could do just that - Shannon Cross in a wonderfully abrupt and direct manner clearly stated,

"HP should buy Canon."

She followed up with, "they should buy Xerox...but there would be dominance issues." I believe alluding to the monopolistic aspects of such an occurrence.

HP Should Buy Canon - that is the take away from this session.

An acquisition like this would allow HP to own outright, their laser engines and give them some sort of foothold in the copier industry. But, in light of the relative strength and dominance Ricoh will soon have in the industry, the question has to be, does HP have enough guts to get into the fray?

If only HP had a gutsy-type guy at the helm...

UPDATES:

The Death of the HP CM8060 with Edgeline Technology has been Greatly Exagerated

Canon - Taking Hits

Canon of Japan, the world's largest digital camera maker, reported a sharp fall in quarterly profit Wednesday and predicted a two-thirds decline this year, hit by slumping demand for cameras and office equipment and a stronger yen.

"A substantial recovery in the economy is unlikely in 2009. Our operating environment will be even harder this year than it was last year," Masahiro Osawa, Canon's senior managing director in charge of accounting, said at a news conference.

Canon is under attack by a "triple threat" - low demand for camera's, the yen, and Ricoh. The first two, low demand and the yen, effect everyone. Ricoh, because of the acquisition of IKON, has the ability to bend the bullet right at Canon's copier segment.

Lyra Symposium 2009 - Quick Follow Up

The drive down was unexceptional; snow after an hour, still clinging to the roof of the Rover. "You have snow on your car..." says the valet-girl, "yeah, I thought it would melt by now," I respond. 

A quick walk to the registration desk - "Good morning." she greets, "Greg Walters...", I reply. "oh...you're The Death of the Copier guy!" she says. "yes, I am that guy..." Jennifer and Irene greet me and make me feel right at home - right then and there, I decide this is going to be a good show. 

I was not disappointed. 

Walkthrough the door, grab a coffee (coffee flavored coffee) and some fruit and collect my thoughts for the day. This is a show, a symposium, a collection of people with the same interests, here to learn and connect. 

A most human characteristic. 

First, I meet Brian from Lexmark - 13 years with the company, an engineer. A great guy. We talk about the weather here in Palm Springs versus Kentucky - they get ice, we get sun. 

Two gentlemen from WE Soft, Johnson Cheng, General Manager, and Victor Poon, Vice President come in and share a corner of our table. We all chat about this and that and then they ask me what I do...I simply hand them my card, "The Death Of The Copier...I know you, I've been to your site." I must admit, I am flattered and a bit embarrassed every time somebody recognizes my site. 

Cary Kimmel, from WE Soft, joins us while I am handing out cards. He reads, and then gives me "the look" -

"Hey, I am trying to get people into this market, not scare them away. What the heck are you talking about, the death of the copier?" - Cary Kimmel

So it's official, I am in the room for less than 30 minutes, and already defending the name of my blog.

Honestly, I never did "defend" the name, I simply explain - and when a "copier" person thinks about it, I know they get it. I am, after all, a copier guy. Since 1988, I have been to so many shows, symposiums, conventions, I have forgotten more than I remember - the Lyra Symposium kept me awake and attentive during every single presentation. The presentations were engaging and moved along - Lyra is a research company, compiling data on all things printing - statistics (the word still gives me the willie's - delayed stress from my days in college). 

Yet, I understood and "kept up" with the "pasta-charts" and financial diction. I met some great people in our industry and had some really good conversations. Over the next few days, I will re-digest my notes and put together hopefully some interesting articles. 

Jim Lyons was clicking away during the presentations - so he has some really good posts right now. Matt Zimmer VP of Sales from Photizo has a good update, here as well.

Canon to Employees - "Go Home - Make babies..."

"We can go home early and not feel ashamed." - Canon employee, Miwa Iwasaki.

Canon headquarters, along with 1,300 other Japanese companies, are forcing employees to go home early and work on improving the current national birth rate of 1.34. A birth rate of 2.0 is considered "passing".

With an average 12 hour work day going home at 5:30 is going home early for most Japanese workers. On it's own, forcibly being sent home early, is indeed a treat, but being told to go home and make babies - huh?

"Canon has a very strong birth planning program," says the company's spokesman Hiroshi Yoshinaga. "Sending workers home early to be with their families is a part of it."

HP Edgeline, Hawk? Layoffs for 200 - Moving Edgeline to Singapore...

Reported yesterday in the Columbian.com, HP is continuing it's downsizing of the Vancouver location and according to the article, "scraping its Edgeline team".

HP “is shifting prototype testing, as well as some work on research designs, engineering specifications and drawings, abroad, including to Singapore,” according to U.S. Department of Labor documents. This inkjet lab move will affect at least 52 Vancouver employees, a labor official said.

"Similar work done by HP’s Vancouver-based Edgeline Development and Operations Group will also move overseas, according to other documents. This will affect at least 93 Vancouver employees, who work for HP and for 15 related contract staffing agencies, the Labor official said..."

It doesn't look like Edgeline will go the way of the Hawks - but could OPS VARs be nervous?


UPDATE:

The Death of the HP CM8060 with Edgeline Technology has been Greatly Exagerated

Click to email me.

From Hybrid Dealer to "Galactic-Hybrid" - The World is Not Enough

Do You Keep Canon, Flip to Ricoh or is there somenthing more...?

2009

IKON customers and independent dealers: what say you?

The Three Prospectives:

Customer: After exhaustive demo's, painful presentations of one copier rep after another, a dizzying amount of contract analysis, and final negotiations, you settle on a slightly more expensive, Canon copier fleet, provided by IKON.

Today you find yourself in the 2nd year of a three year agreement and your IKON rep wants to "move" you into a Ricoh.

Independent Dealer: You weren't around for the IKON/Alco Standard days, so you worked directly with Canon or Ricoh or maybe Sharp or Toshiba - over the years, you competed with Xerox, RBS, CBS, IKON and all the rest. You hesitantly moved from analog to digital, and heard all the "hoopla" around Electronic Document Management and "Solution Sales".

When Global came around you said, "no thanks...". You hired solid technicians who knew their way around belts and rollers and fusers and corona wires like nobody else. You delivered and set up copiers, and plugged them into the network - letting your client's "IT Guy" take care of the scanning and print drivers.

You remained true to the hardware.

As time moved forward, your collection of customers provided a steady stream of business - the owner often made sales calls.

RiKon Account Exec, Sales Person, et el: September of 2006 you closed and installed a small fleet of Canon copiers, 5020's and a 105.

Today, the agreement is within the 12 month renewal window, is part of your upgradable MIF and therefore used to calculate your yearly goal. You have always conducting your quarterly customer reviews, your service technicians have always been on time, and every service call has been a "one call, closed ticket" call.

Your customer's invoice has never been wrong, and overages have always been correct. Your customer and your crack Professional Services team toiled for months connecting the Canons to their legacy AS-400 system and getting the 105 to talk to the marketing department's Apple's.

Your customer loves Canon; but you don't sell Canon anymore, do you? And one more thing, nobody WANTS to buy a new copier but EVERYBODY wants to know more about this thing called Managed Print Services.

Also, this time around, your are setting down and talking with "the guy from IT"- not to discuss Documentum or KOFAX , you are talking about leasing, buyout amounts, and educating him on CPC and all of his overage charges.

This "IT guy" has five flat panel displays at his desk; one shows his network traffic, three are filled with custom built spreadsheets, he analyzes everything down to the granular level, the fourth screen is filled with WoW.

With a double click, he proudly shows you his "Copier Analysis Spreadsheet" - no less than 12 vendors names fill the first column, there are 23 columns of "decision criteria" - and this was one of your MIF accounts.

-----

It hasn't even been a year since the announcement of the Ricoh/IKON deal but the merger looks like it is working without too many hitches. There may be some "internal" challenges, but the systems appear to be working as it was before the assimilation.

Today, Canon/Ikon customers are considering three alternatives: finding a good Canon service provider, sticking with IKON, or moving to another manufacturer - Konica/Minolta, Toshiba, Xerox, etc - all very good hardware choices.

There is more - the tumbling economy presents an opportunity for companies, with the help of Selling Professionals, to cut cost like never before.

The opportunity to redefine a costly, inefficient purchasing process by sweeping away the old and establishing a new more holistic approach to implementing print fleets and reducing the number of pages copied.

So while Canon/IKON customers evaluate their position and options, trying to figure out how to maintain their fleets, I suggest one more alternative - re-evaluate the Customer-Copier Dealer relationship in TOTAL.

Ask a simple question,

Who says companies EVEN NEED copiers today?

We know who: Ricoh, Xerox, Canon, Konica Minolta, Sharp, Toshiba, Oce, Samsung and Kyocera that's who and for obvious reasons.

Sure, you may need a device or two that can copy documents coming from outside the organization - but how many of us, in the commercial world, still assemble anything more than a stapled document?

When speaking with current Canon customers, I suggest taking a deep breath and appraising the existing print fleet, print flows, printing structure, hard costs, soft costs AND the relationship with the current equipment supplier - are they a vendor or are they a Partner?

Additionally, observe the existing fleet through a prism of absolute need. Asking, "...do I need a copier here...? - back to basics.

This may seem foolish to some, bold to others, but at no other time in the last 20 years has a opportunity to change the model on such a fundamental level been presented: Back To The Beginning.

The New Born "Elephant in the Room" - Managed Print Services

The single goal of MPS engagements is to lower costs associate with printing - primarily achieved by reducing images printed and machines in field.

The days of an "assessment" leading to new hardware are fading fast, if not gone completely.

So one may ask, "...if a Managed Print Service engagement will reduce the number of copiers, how can a copier manufacturer approach Managed Print Services in an upfront manner...?"

The answer is complex. It starts with the definition of MPS or more specifically, who is defining MPS.

For now, the basic response is because copier companies are the only ones in a position to understand Managed Print Services - either as an ally or a foe.

Your Prospective:

Customer: Your choice is simple, the ramifications huge. Do you opt for more of the same, or get back to basics and boldly go forward in revolution?

Independent Dealers: Are you in or are you out?

Once again, your "days are numbered" - word of your demise is greatly exaggerated. As an independent, your are in the best position to profit from the turmoil. It takes commitment. It takes money. It takes vision, and you will need to burn your ships at the shore, again.
RiKon Account Exec, Sales Person: Do you stay with RiKON, jump over to Canon or join a smaller, more appreciative dealer? (Or do you go sell pharms.)

You have alternatives too - and there really aren't any "bad" choices.

Sales People in the Industry: The terrible economy will not last forever, and with all turmoil and upheaval, opportunity abounds on a personal level. Now is the time to evaluate your unique personal position in the world - to find who truly helps you for you, not for the corporate bottom line.

The Rikon deal, challenging economy, socialistic skewing of capitalism, all influence choices - "should I stay or should I go?" or maybe a more apropos statement is "...nobody moves, nobody gets hurt..."

Click to email me.

Blogging for Print - "The Printed Blog"

Has Blogging come full circle or is this one last gasp of air before print media sinks into the depths of oblivion...

A new site described as "...the best of the Web on your Newsstand..." - what the heck is a "Newsstand"? has popped up from heart of Silicon Valley.

From the site:

"Blog Driven Publishing is Born!

The Printed Blog is the world's first daily newspaper comprised entirely of blogs and other user generated content.

The result is a revolutionary newspaper that reads and functions like a web feed - yet can still be enjoyed on the train or spread across the breakfast table, for an uninterrupted, pleasurably tactile experience..."

The phrase, "...pleasurably tactile experience..." intrigues.

It is my opinion that this one issue, "touching", is the primary reason we humans read books and newspapers - this primal process involves and evokes human touch. After all, reading is just story telling in our head - and story telling is the third most primal, human characteristic in existence.




As the number of players in the newspaper industry continues to dwindle, blame placed squarely at the feet of those "citizen journalists",news aggregators and Google, can it be possible that the newspaper of the future will be a collection of blogs, articles and tweets printed on recycled paper, twice a day?

"The ghost of Gutenberg has returned to live in San Francisco, only to die laughing. I repeat, old is new. Prepare to meet thy past." - Simon Jenkins, here.

Xerox - No Surprises - Earnings Below Expectations, Blames the Yen...

Sales of printers and other hardware plunged 15 percent as companies cut technology budgets. Customers are cutting orders and distributors are reducing inventory, Mulcahy said.

Late last year Xerox announced a restructuring plan that included about 3,000 job cuts, aimed at saving $200 million in 2009.

Revenue fell 10 percent to $4.37 billion.

Revenue from sales of supplies and services -- known as "post-sale" revenue -- fell 8 percent to $3.1 billion. Equipment sale revenue declined 15 percent to $1.3 billion, reflecting "weakened economic conditions around the world," Xerox said.

"In the fourth quarter, the continued weakening economy and rapid shift in exchange rates put pressure on the business," said Anne Mulcahy, chairman and chief executive officer. "Despite this challenging marketplace, we delivered $265 million in adjusted net income for the quarter and $985 million for the year."

"We continue to prioritize cash and productivity to give us flexibility in this uncertain environment," she added. "Our fourth-quarter restructuring will deliver $200 million in savings this year. And, last year we generated $1.7 billion in adjusted cash from core operations. We believe our strong balance sheet and disciplined approach to cost reductions strengthen our ability to effectively manage through these tough economic times."

The movement of the Yen, in just the last six weeks of the year, effected the reduction in margins - the movement was so quick, that the traditional action of pricing increase could not keep up. This dynamic resulted in 50% of the 10% downshift in margin.

Xerox MIF up 4% in December and an increase in color pages could not overcome negatively "currency" issues which sliced into revenues .

During 2008, Xerox Global Services generated $3.5 billion in annuity revenue, a 3 percent increase over 2007.

Full statement here. (PDF)
------------

Summary

All in all, Xerox took hits due to global economic forces. Activity was only down compared to historical data - actual new color pages printed increase 18%(compared to an increase of 25% last year).

Also, shrinking orders from distribution, effected overall performance, although MIF increased by 4%.

And because, like all copier models, new agreements equate repeatable revenues/cash flow, etc, the big X is doing fine.

We should all be worried when Xerox starts to report a increase in defaulted agreements - meaning their customers are going out of business.

More Screens, More Productivity - How About This?

Jim Lyons mentioned how employee productivity increases if they use dual screens, as much as 44%. I wonder how much productivity would increase with this?

 

Check this:

Minority Report - Who Needs Paper?

Microsoft, Google - Join Intel, Lexmark with Bad News and Staff Reductions

Microsoft

"Our financial position is solid ... but it is also clear that we are not immune to the effects of the economy," Chief Executive Steve Ballmer wrote to employees in a letter. "Consumers and businesses have reined in spending, which is affecting PC shipments and IT expenditures."
Microsoft will be eliminating 5,000 job with 1,400 going immediately, the rest over 18 months.

Microsoft's staggered elimination of 5,000 jobs -- 1,400 immediately and the rest over 18 months.

Lexmark

The economic slump prompted customers to rein in spending, hurting demand for printers. Lexmark has already trimmed about a 10th of its workforce in two years to cope with slowing orders and competition from market leader Hewlett-Packard Co. The new job cuts are aimed at saving $50 million a year.

“We saw weaker-than-expected market demand for both hardware and supply,” Chief Executive Officer Paul Curlander said.

Google

Google said fourth-quarter profits fell 68 percent to $382 million ($1.21 per share), from $1.2 billion ($3.79) a year ago.

Much of the decline was attributed to a $1.09 billion charge for soured investments in wireless provider Clearwire and in the AOL Web portal. A settlement over copyright infringement with book publishers added $95 million in costs.

Intel

After reporting its first quarterly loss in 22 years, Santa Clara computer chip maker Intel on Wednesday said it will lay off at least 5,000 employees and shut five manufacturing plants.

AMD

AMD reported its ninth straight loss as PC sales slow, then stall, and finally fall.

HP - $8.3 Billion in Earnings - E.P.S. up to $3.25 from $2.68

"Fiscal 2008 was a strong year with some notable accomplishments ... We have prepared HP to perform well and are building a company that can bring meaningful value to our customers and stockholders for the long term," Hurd wrote. "Looking ahead, it is important to separate 2008 from 2009, and acknowledge the difficult economic landscape."

The annual report revealed the following:

* Revenue growth of 13 percent, to $118.4 billion
* $8.3 billion in net earnings
* Earnings per share of $3.25, up from $2.68 in 2007

Additionally, Hurd earned $42.5 million in 2008, according to the company's proxy statement, released Tuesday.